Ahem

Just in case you stumbled here and were wondering, yes, I am very much alive. Thank you.

Strategic time-out

No, that’s not my excuse for not posting anything for a long time. Pleasantries aside, this post is intended to reveal to the world the deals that went behind the strategic time-out in IPL V2. Not that the people haven’t figured it out already. The real motive behind the move was figured out by members of every species with brain anything more than the size of an apple. But for completeness’ sake, I’ll describe the events in detail.

Looking at the TRPs and the media revenue for IPL V1, Mr. Modi was a sad man. He had not managed sufficient money to buy the police force of India to provide security for IPL V2. To add to his worries, his venture will have to fight it out for media attention with the greatest indian entertainment programme, the general elections. He hired Chopa, investment banker by night (irrespective of which timezone he is in), strategic consultant by the day, to help IPL gather more revenues. So one fine morning, Chopa walked into Modi’s office.

Modi: Welcome, Chopa. We are glad we have you to guide us.

Chopa: No problem. I hope you’ve got the Daru.

Modi: It’s all taken care of. We badly need your help in revamping IPL.

Chopa: What is your objective? Provide entertainment to the masses through Cricket?

Modi: Haha. That’s our stated objective. But the goal of any organization, including IPL, is to make money.

Chopa: Good. You’ve read the books I had sent you. Now, I will work on a detailed study on your revenue streams. Where are your books?

Modi: It’s all right here. We have an open book and open door policy when it comes to IPL.

Chopa: Aha ! There is your problem. You have an open door policy.

Modi: I don’t understand. What does it have anything to do with our revenues?

Chopa: What you need is Strategy. And you need to close doors in any strategy.

Modi: You mean, the dressing room doors should be closed to improve our revenues?

Chopa: Grrr Forget it. Leave the implementation to me. What I need you to do is help me put the strategy in place.

Modi: Good idea. Let us have a strategy.

Chopa: This isn’t getting anywhere. Are you even listening to me?

Modi: Right. We must listen to the players. But you realize that the crowd in india is really hard to control. With all the people shouting and cheering, I barely manage to hear the questions that the TV men ask me, let alone the players. Maybe we should move to some other place where the crowd remains quiet. Better, let’s find a place where there will be no crowd at all.

Chopa: Mr. Modi, TIME OUT. TIME OUT. Please stop talking and listen to me.

Modi: Excellent. What we need is a time out. Strategy. A strategic time out.

Chopa: Wait, that’s not what I said.

Modi: Doesn’t matter. I’ve got my plans in place to get the money. Thank you very much, Chopa. We will not be needing your services anymore.

The rest, as they say, is history. Or lack of it. Whatever. Watch is live on TV.

Coin Tosses

Question from http://wiki.xkcd.com/irc/Puzzles

Sue and Bob take turns rolling a 6-sided die. Once either person rolls a 6 the game is over. Sue rolls first, if she doesn’t roll a 6, Bob rolls the die, if he doesn’t roll a 6, Sue rolls again. They continue taking turns until one of them rolls a 6.

Bob rolls a 6 before Sue.

What is the probability Bob rolled the 6 on his second turn?

Note: it is not (5/6)*(1/6).

My Solution:

Looks like a pretty simple question using Bayes Theorem and Conditional Probability.

We are required to find P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won)
P(Bob winning) = (5/6)*(1/6) + (5/6)^3*(1/6) + (5/6)^5*(1/6) + …..

   = 1/6 * (5/6 ) / (1 – 25/36)

  =( 5/36) / 11/36

  = 5/11

P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) = 1

P(Bob rolled 6 in second turn) = (5/6)^3*(1/6) 

Therefore, P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won) = P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) * P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) / P(Bob winning)

    = 1 * (5/6)^3*(1/6) / (5/11)

   = 25 * 11 / 6^4

   = 275 / 1296

Worst Christmas Ever

It’s Christmas. And I’m here reading through a fat textbook, preparing for my end term exams starting tomorrow. Sigh.

Since I am going to celebrate New Year in a train travelling to Malluland, this easily becomes the worst Christmas-New Year festival season ever in my life.

Better luck next year.

Of Beef, Brahmins and Game Theory

Disclaimers: This post may be quite (in)sensitive, reader discretion is strongly advised. All opinions presented here are my own and inspired by a lecture I attended today. I do not make any guarantee of the veracity of the facts presented. Interested readers can conduct their own research to verify the facts for themselves.

Today’s class by Prof. D’souza brought up a few interesting observations about how consumption of Beef has become such a taboo in India. The Aryans, during their migration of India, were non-vegetarians. According to Pota, the pulse-based tamil dishes were introduced into the diet to ensure sufficient proteins in the meals when the brahmins shifted from their non-vegetarian to vegetarian diet. There seems to be enough evidence to suggest that Aryans consumed beef. All stories speak about ancient kings donating cattle to brahmins in the land, and about cattle being offered as sacrifice. In Greek mythology such as The Iliad, animals offered to gods as sacrificed were then consumed by the heroes who made the sacrifice. If similar behaviour existed in India too, then these seem to suggest that beef was indeed an acceptable and perhaps preferred part of the meal in India.

If that was the case, when did beef suddenly become a prohibited meal item in India? This aversion to slaughter of cattle has reached such highs that it is being compared to cannibalism, and the directive principles of state policy recommend prohibition of cattle slaughter to be enforced by the state governments. Turns out, Game Theory has an elegant explanation to this change.

In the early 6th century, draughts used to be quite common in India. Given the dependence of the early civilizations on agriculture, periods of draughts were quite difficult to handle. Most households had their own stock of cattle used to plough the farm land. Since cattle can survive for much longer periods with limited supply of food and water, the cattle had a higher probability of making it through the draught than their human owners. When food supply ran out, the people went on to consume the tubers, then the seeds earmarked for sowing in the next season, and finally, turned to slaughtering their cattle for food. However, killing their cattle ensured certain doom for the household, as they would not have cattle to help them plough the land when the next rains occur. 

This left the people in a Prisoner’s Dilemma. If a man and his neighbour both did not kill their cattle, then both have a chance of surviving in the long term. If both killed their cattle, both are unlikely to survive in the long run. If one man killed his cattle but his neighbour did not, then he might make it through the draught. However, his unlucky neighbour might not make it through, and his cattle could be picked up by the surviving neighbour to plough his land. Thus, irrespective of the actions of the neighbour, a man is better off by killing and consuming his cattle. This logic, however, takes the society to the Nash Equilibrium, where both men would kill their cattle and thus lead the society to a total disastrous end. 

Whenever similar situations occur, the natural course of events would take the society to the Nash Equilibrium, unless the society formulates a set of guidelines to prevent the people from acting the way they would normally have done. In this case, considering cattle as holy animals and slaughter of cattle a sin was the society’s way of ensuring that the livestock are saved from slaughter and are preserved until farming could be resumed with the next rains. This ensured that agriculture formed a key part of successful Indian civilizations.

So, considering the changed circumstances, does it still make sense to stick to the old traditions for the sake of preserving them? Maybe it’s time to start asking questions.

Beware

All faculty members teaching operations, all over the world, are mad. Be very suspicious of any OM faculty who does not look mad. The question is not whether they will go mad, but when they will go mad. Our only hope is that senility comes before insanity.

– Saral Da in today’s OM class

An old email forward…

 

Aisi apni wife ho….

5’6″ jiski height ho,

Jeans jiski tight ho,

Chehara jiska bright ho,

Weight mein thodi light Ho,

Umar me difference slight ho,

Thodi see wo quiet ho,

Aise apni Wife ho.

 

Sadak per sab kahe kya cute ho,

Bhid me sab kahe side ho, side ho,

India ki paidaish ho,

Sas ki seva jiski khwahish ho

Aisi apni Wife ho.

 

Padosi jab baat kare to haath me knife ho,

Dinner candle light ho,

Dono me na kabhi fight ho,

Milane ke baad dil delight ho,

Hey prabhu teri archana uski life ho.

Yeh kavita padhke sab kahe “Guru, tum right ho”,

Agar aisi apni Wife ho, to kya hasin life ho.

Hello there

It’s been a while since I posted anything here. In the meantime, USA got a new president, a few countries went into debt, a few more banks went into even more trouble, carmakers are out of cash, rupee is down the drain, Indian cricket team won three ODIs in a row, MJ converted to Islam, and I became a consultant (well, almost).

We live indeed in interesting times. Recession is all I hear these days, wherever I look. It has already made its impact on Indian B-school job scenario. I’m hoping that things will start improving quite soon, though I have no clue when this will happen.

I have officially made my mark as a faccha satsang member, and am hoping to pitch for it in OM3 next year with Ragda and Pocha. 

Confluence 2008 is going on this weekend, and as a proud member of the organizing team, I’m glad to say that the team pulled off a great show in spite of the difficult conditions (there, I am talking of recession again ! )

Now that summer placements are over, I am enjoying the luxury of 8 hours sleep everyday. Things will be back to normal from Monday, so I have precious little time to savour it.

Snippets of wisdom

Smartness, thy name is non-compliance

Crushed egos

Amartya Sen was a truly extraordinary man. But his daughters were not remarkable. They were all just ordinary people…. Like YOU.

 – Prof. TB in his statistics class