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Coin Tosses

Posted by Ubiquitin on February 13, 2009

Question from http://wiki.xkcd.com/irc/Puzzles

Sue and Bob take turns rolling a 6-sided die. Once either person rolls a 6 the game is over. Sue rolls first, if she doesn’t roll a 6, Bob rolls the die, if he doesn’t roll a 6, Sue rolls again. They continue taking turns until one of them rolls a 6.

Bob rolls a 6 before Sue.

What is the probability Bob rolled the 6 on his second turn?

Note: it is not (5/6)*(1/6).

My Solution:

Looks like a pretty simple question using Bayes Theorem and Conditional Probability.

We are required to find P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won)
P(Bob winning) = (5/6)*(1/6) + (5/6)^3*(1/6) + (5/6)^5*(1/6) + …..

   = 1/6 * (5/6 ) / (1 – 25/36)

  =( 5/36) / 11/36

  = 5/11

P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) = 1

P(Bob rolled 6 in second turn) = (5/6)^3*(1/6) 

Therefore, P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won) = P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) * P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) / P(Bob winning)

    = 1 * (5/6)^3*(1/6) / (5/11)

   = 25 * 11 / 6^4

   = 275 / 1296

3 Responses to “Coin Tosses”

  1. Your problem is that the premise upon which this whole exercise rests is itself highly improbable. For a realistic look at Bayes’ Theorem, try my post on it:

    http://sciencedefeated.wordpress.com/2008/11/01/probability/

    NS

  2. Ubiquitin said

    Wonderful. Mr. Notedscholar, your understanding of probability and its fine nuances really surprise me. I am looking forward to more intellectually simulating discussions with you.

    @Others: Before you even try to understand the brilliant work of Notedscholar, you may want to read up about conditional probability. Especially focus on the difference between P(A) and P(A|A).

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