Coin Tosses
Posted by Ubiquitin on February 13, 2009
Question from http://wiki.xkcd.com/irc/Puzzles
Sue and Bob take turns rolling a 6-sided die. Once either person rolls a 6 the game is over. Sue rolls first, if she doesn’t roll a 6, Bob rolls the die, if he doesn’t roll a 6, Sue rolls again. They continue taking turns until one of them rolls a 6.
Bob rolls a 6 before Sue.
What is the probability Bob rolled the 6 on his second turn?
Note: it is not (5/6)*(1/6).
My Solution:
Looks like a pretty simple question using Bayes Theorem and Conditional Probability.
We are required to find P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won)
P(Bob winning) = (5/6)*(1/6) + (5/6)^3*(1/6) + (5/6)^5*(1/6) + …..
= 1/6 * (5/6 ) / (1 – 25/36)
=( 5/36) / 11/36
= 5/11
P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) = 1
P(Bob rolled 6 in second turn) = (5/6)^3*(1/6)
Therefore, P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn | Bob Won) = P(Bob winning | Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) * P(Bob rolled 6 in his second turn) / P(Bob winning)
= 1 * (5/6)^3*(1/6) / (5/11)
= 25 * 11 / 6^4
= 275 / 1296
notedscholar said
Your problem is that the premise upon which this whole exercise rests is itself highly improbable. For a realistic look at Bayes’ Theorem, try my post on it:
http://sciencedefeated.wordpress.com/2008/11/01/probability/
NS
Ubiquitin said
Wonderful. Mr. Notedscholar, your understanding of probability and its fine nuances really surprise me. I am looking forward to more intellectually simulating discussions with you.
@Others: Before you even try to understand the brilliant work of Notedscholar, you may want to read up about conditional probability. Especially focus on the difference between P(A) and P(A|A).
notedscholar said
I know right?
NS